Solar activity report

Viewing archive of Friday, 10 March 2006

Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.

Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2006 Mar 10 2204 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 069 Issued at 2200Z on 10 Mar 2006

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 09-2100Z to 10-2100Z

Solar activity was very low. No flares have been observed over the past 24 hours.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast

Solar activity is expected to be very low.

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 09-2100Z to 10-2100Z

The geomagnetic field was quiet to unsettled.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast

The geomagnetic field is expected to be quiet to unsettled for 11 March. Isolated active periods are possible due to a geoeffective coronal hole. Predominantly quiet conditions are expected for 12-13 March.

III. Event Probabilities 11 Mar to 13 Mar

Class M	01%	01%	01%
Class X	01%	01%	01%
Proton	01%	01%	01%
PCAF	green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux

  Observed       10 Mar 072
  Predicted   11 Mar-13 Mar  072/072/070
  90 Day Mean        10 Mar 082

V. Geomagnetic A Indices

  Observed Afr/Ap 09 Mar  003/004
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 10 Mar  008/010
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 11 Mar-13 Mar  010/010-005/005-005/005

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 11 Mar to 13 Mar

A. Middle Latitudes
Active	20%	20%	10%
Minor storm	10%	05%	05%
Major-severe storm	05%	01%	01%

B. High Latitudes
Active	25%	20%	10%
Minor storm	15%	10%	05%
Major-severe storm	05%	01%	01%

All times in UTC

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G2 - Moderate geomagnetic storm

Observed Kp: 6
Threshold reached: 20:16 UTC

Current data suggests there is a slight possibility for aurora to appear at the following high latitude regions in the near future

Oulu, Rovaniemi, Sodankylä, Utsjoki
Kirkenes, Tromsø
Murmansk, Vorkuta
Kiruna, Luleå

The solar wind speed is currently moderately high (628.2 km/sec.)
The density of the solar wind is moderate (21.22 p/cm³)

The strength of the interplanetary magnetic field is moderate (17.42nT), the direction is North (12.5nT).

The Disturbance Storm Time index predicts moderate storm conditions right now (-76nT)

The maximum X-ray flux of the past two hours is:

C7.01

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