Viewing archive of Saturday, 11 March 2006
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2006 Mar 11 2203 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 070 Issued at 2200Z on 11 Mar 2006IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 10-2100Z to 11-2100Z
Solar activity was very low. Region 856 (S09W89)
produced a long-duration B-class flare at 11/1400Z. No evidence of
an associated CME was observed; however, LASCO imagery was not
available at the time of issue.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be very
low.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 10-2100Z to 11-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was quiet to active. Active conditions
followed the onset of a coronal hole high speed stream.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be quiet to unsettled with a chance for isolated active
periods on 12 March. Quiet to unsettled conditions are expected for
13-14 March.
III. Event Probabilities 12 Mar to 14 Mar
| Class M | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 11 Mar 074 Predicted 12 Mar-14 Mar 072/072/072 90 Day Mean 11 Mar 081
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 10 Mar 009/012 Estimated Afr/Ap 11 Mar 012/010 Predicted Afr/Ap 12 Mar-14 Mar 005/005-005/005-007/008
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 12 Mar to 14 Mar
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 15% | 10% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 20% | 10% | 20% |
| Minor storm | 10% | 05% | 10% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
All times in UTC
Current data suggests there is a slight possibility for aurora to appear at the following high latitude regions in the near future
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