Viewing archive of Friday, 7 April 2006

Solar activity report

Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2006 Apr 07 2203 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 097 Issued at 2200Z on 07 Apr 2006

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 06-2100Z to 07-2100Z

Solar activity was low. Region 867 (S15W56) produced an impulsive C9 flare at 07/0803Z. Region 865 (S11W58) is in decay and now has 7 spots with a total area of 230 millionths. Region 869 (S12E08) has developed into a Dso class spot group. Region 866 (S05W53) has shown little change since yesterday.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be low. There is a slight chance for M-class activity from Region 865.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 06-2100Z to 07-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was quiet.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be quiet on 08 April. On 09 and 10 April, unsettled to active conditions with a chance for isolated minor storm periods are expected due to a high speed stream from a transequatorial coronal hole.
III. Event Probabilities 08 Apr to 10 Apr
Class M15%05%05%
Class X01%01%01%
Proton01%01%01%
PCAFgreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       07 Apr 095
  Predicted   08 Apr-10 Apr  095/090/085
  90 Day Mean        07 Apr 080
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 06 Apr  006/010
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 07 Apr  002/004
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 08 Apr-10 Apr  005/008-012/020-010/015
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 08 Apr to 10 Apr
A. Middle Latitudes
Active15%25%20%
Minor storm01%15%05%
Major-severe storm01%05%01%
B. High Latitudes
Active20%40%30%
Minor storm05%25%10%
Major-severe storm01%15%05%

All times in UTC

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