Viewing archive of Thursday, 4 May 2006

Solar activity report

Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2006 May 04 2203 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 124 Issued at 2200Z on 04 May 2006

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 03-2100Z to 04-2100Z

Solar activity was low. An active region on the east limb (S10E90) produced a C1 flare at 04/1745 UTC. A very faint partial halo CME was observed by LASCO starting at approximately 04/0131 UTC associated with a filament eruption (S33W07).
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be very low to low.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 03-2100Z to 04-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was quiet to active, with a single minor storm period at high latitudes from 1200 - 1500 UTC following a period of sustained southward Bz.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be mostly unsettled to active for the next three days (05 - 07 May) with a chance for minor to major storm periods on 06 May due to a recurrent coronal hole high speed stream and possible effects from today's partial halo CME.
III. Event Probabilities 05 May to 07 May
Class M05%05%05%
Class X01%01%01%
Proton01%01%01%
PCAFgreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       04 May 092
  Predicted   05 May-07 May  090/090/090
  90 Day Mean        04 May 082
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 03 May  002/003
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 04 May  007/015
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 05 May-07 May  015/020-025/030-015/020
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 05 May to 07 May
A. Middle Latitudes
Active25%40%25%
Minor storm15%20%15%
Major-severe storm05%10%05%
B. High Latitudes
Active30%30%30%
Minor storm20%30%20%
Major-severe storm10%15%10%

All times in UTC

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