Viewing archive of Sunday, 9 July 2006
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2006 Jul 09 2203 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 190 Issued at 2200Z on 09 Jul 2006IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 08-2100Z to 09-2100Z Solar activity was very low. Region 898 (S06W83)
continues to be in decay. This region is due to rotate off the west
limb on 10 July.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be very
low to low.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 08-2100Z to 09-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was quiet. At approximately 09/2045 UTC, an
increase in total magnetic field, wind speed, temperature and
density was observed at the ACE spacecraft. The greater than 2 MeV
electron flux at geosynchronous orbit reached high levels again
today.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be quiet to unsettled on 10 and 11 July. On 12 July,
unsettled to active conditions are expected with the possibility of
minor storm periods due to a recurrent coronal hole high speed
stream moving into geoeffective position.
III. Event Probabilities 10 Jul to 12 Jul
| Class M | 05% | 05% | 01% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | Green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 09 Jul 075 Predicted 10 Jul-12 Jul 075/075/075 90 Day Mean 09 Jul 076
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 08 Jul 002/003 Estimated Afr/Ap 09 Jul 005/010 Predicted Afr/Ap 10 Jul-12 Jul 003/008-005/008-015/020
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 10 Jul to 12 Jul
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 15% | 15% | 30% |
| Minor storm | 05% | 05% | 15% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 05% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 20% | 20% | 35% |
| Minor storm | 10% | 10% | 25% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 15% |
All times in UTC
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