Viewing archive of Sunday, 9 July 2006

Solar activity report

Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2006 Jul 09 2203 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 190 Issued at 2200Z on 09 Jul 2006

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 08-2100Z to 09-2100Z

Solar activity was very low. Region 898 (S06W83) continues to be in decay. This region is due to rotate off the west limb on 10 July.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be very low to low.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 08-2100Z to 09-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was quiet. At approximately 09/2045 UTC, an increase in total magnetic field, wind speed, temperature and density was observed at the ACE spacecraft. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit reached high levels again today.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be quiet to unsettled on 10 and 11 July. On 12 July, unsettled to active conditions are expected with the possibility of minor storm periods due to a recurrent coronal hole high speed stream moving into geoeffective position.
III. Event Probabilities 10 Jul to 12 Jul
Class M05%05%01%
Class X01%01%01%
Proton01%01%01%
PCAFGreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       09 Jul 075
  Predicted   10 Jul-12 Jul  075/075/075
  90 Day Mean        09 Jul 076
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 08 Jul  002/003
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 09 Jul  005/010
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 10 Jul-12 Jul  003/008-005/008-015/020
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 10 Jul to 12 Jul
A. Middle Latitudes
Active15%15%30%
Minor storm05%05%15%
Major-severe storm01%01%05%
B. High Latitudes
Active20%20%35%
Minor storm10%10%25%
Major-severe storm01%01%15%

All times in UTC

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