Viewing archive of Wednesday, 2 January 2008

Solar activity report

Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2008 Jan 02 2203 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 002 Issued at 2200Z on 02 Jan 2008

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 01-2100Z to 02-2100Z

Solar activity was low. Region 980 (S08E58) produced a long duration C1 flare at 02/1000Z. An associated CME was observed on LASCO C3 imagery at 02/1006Z. This region is currently classified as a CSO beta sunspot group.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be very low to low. There remains a slight chance for an isolated M-class event from Region 980.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 01-2100Z to 02-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was quiet. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit reached high levels today.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be quiet to unsettled with isolated active periods at high latitudes for the forecast period (3-5 January). Elevated activity is forecast due to possible effects from transients associated with the recent C-class flares.
III. Event Probabilities 03 Jan to 05 Jan
Class M10%10%10%
Class X05%05%05%
Proton01%01%01%
PCAFgreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       02 Jan 080
  Predicted   03 Jan-05 Jan  085/087/090
  90 Day Mean        02 Jan 072
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 01 Jan  002/003
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 02 Jan  003/005
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 03 Jan-05 Jan  006/008-008/010-008/010
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 03 Jan to 05 Jan
A. Middle Latitudes
Active10%15%15%
Minor storm01%05%05%
Major-severe storm01%01%01%
B. High Latitudes
Active20%25%25%
Minor storm05%10%10%
Major-severe storm01%01%01%

All times in UTC

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