Viewing archive of Thursday, 3 January 2008
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2008 Jan 03 2203 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 003 Issued at 2200Z on 03 Jan 2008IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 02-2100Z to 03-2100Z Solar activity was very low. No significant flares
occurred during the past 24 hours. Region 890 (S06E42) has decayed
to an Hsx alpha sunspot group.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be very
low to low. A chance remains for an isolated C-class flare from
Region 980.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 02-2100Z to 03-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was quiet.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be quiet to unsettled with isolated active periods for
the next two days (4-5 January). This elevated activity may result
from transients associated with recent C-class flares.
Predominantly quiet conditions should return on 6 January.
III. Event Probabilities 04 Jan to 06 Jan
| Class M | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 03 Jan 079 Predicted 04 Jan-06 Jan 080/080/085 90 Day Mean 03 Jan 072
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 02 Jan 001/001 Estimated Afr/Ap 03 Jan 001/005 Predicted Afr/Ap 04 Jan-06 Jan 008/010-008/010-005/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 04 Jan to 06 Jan
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 20% | 20% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 10% | 10% | 05% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 25% | 25% | 20% |
| Minor storm | 15% | 15% | 05% |
| Major-severe storm | 05% | 05% | 01% |
All times in UTC
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