Viewing archive of Friday, 11 January 2008

Solar activity report

Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2008 Jan 11 2203 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 011 Issued at 2200Z on 11 Jan 2008

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 10-2100Z to 11-2100Z

Solar activity was very low.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be very low.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 10-2100Z to 11-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was quiet. The greater than 2 MeV proton flux at geosynchronous orbit was at high levels.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be unsettled with isolated active conditions on 12-13 January due to a recurrent coronal hole. Conditions are expected to be predominately unsettled for 14 January.
III. Event Probabilities 12 Jan to 14 Jan
Class M01%01%01%
Class X01%01%01%
Proton01%01%01%
PCAFgreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       11 Jan 076
  Predicted   12 Jan-14 Jan  075/070/070
  90 Day Mean        11 Jan 073
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 10 Jan  002/003
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 11 Jan  003/005
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 12 Jan-14 Jan  012/015-012/015-008/010
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 12 Jan to 14 Jan
A. Middle Latitudes
Active20%20%15%
Minor storm15%15%10%
Major-severe storm05%05%01%
B. High Latitudes
Active25%25%20%
Minor storm20%20%15%
Major-severe storm10%01%05%

All times in UTC

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