Viewing archive of Saturday, 15 December 2007

Solar activity report

Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2007 Dec 15 2203 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 349 Issued at 2200Z on 15 Dec 2007

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 14-2100Z to 15-2100Z

Solar activity was very low. Region 978 (S10W52) produced several low B-class flares. This region is now a magnetic beta configuration.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be very low to low. Region 978 could produce an isolated low level C-class flare.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 14-2100Z to 15-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was quiet. The greater than 2 MeV proton flux at geosynchronous orbit was at high levels.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
A recurrent coronal hole is expected to become geoeffective 16-18 December. The geomagnetic field is expected to be quiet to unsettled for 16 December. Active conditions are expected for 17 December with a chance for isolated minor storm periods at mid latitudes and isolated major storming at high latitudes. Unsettled levels with isolated active periods are expected for 18 December.
III. Event Probabilities 16 Dec to 18 Dec
Class M05%01%01%
Class X01%01%01%
Proton01%01%01%
PCAFGreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       15 Dec 089
  Predicted   16 Dec-18 Dec  085/085/080
  90 Day Mean        15 Dec 071
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 14 Dec  002/002
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 15 Dec  003/005
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 16 Dec-18 Dec  008/010-020/025-010/015
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 16 Dec to 18 Dec
A. Middle Latitudes
Active15%30%20%
Minor storm10%20%15%
Major-severe storm01%05%01%
B. High Latitudes
Active20%35%25%
Minor storm15%25%20%
Major-severe storm05%10%05%

All times in UTC

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