Viewing archive of Saturday, 5 April 2008

Solar activity report

Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2008 Apr 05 2203 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 096 Issued at 2200Z on 05 Apr 2008

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 04-2100Z to 05-2100Z

Solar activity was very low. Spotless plage Region 989 (S11W67) produced an isolated low-level B-class flare. SOHO/LASCO images showed a halo CME, first visible in C2 at 05/1626Z. The CME appeared to be from the back side, based on STEREO Ahead EUVI 195 images and the GOES- 10 X-ray signature. No new active regions were numbered.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be very low.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 04-2100Z to 05-2100Z
Geomagnetic field activity ranged from quiet to major storm levels with a Kp = 6 observed during 05/1500 - 1800Z. ACE measurements indicated Earth entered a fast solar wind flow from a recurrent low-latitude coronal hole in the southern hemisphere. Solar wind velocities increased during the period with a peak of 671 km/sec detected at 05/1634Z. IMF Bz reached a minimum of -7 nT at 05/1441Z. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit briefly reached high levels during the period.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
Geomagnetic field activity is expected to be at unsettled to minor storm levels on day 1 (06 April) with major storm levels possible at high latitudes. Activity is expected to decrease to unsettled to active levels during days 2 - 3 (07 - 08 April) as coronal hole effects persist.
III. Event Probabilities 06 Apr to 08 Apr
Class M01%01%01%
Class X01%01%01%
Proton01%01%01%
PCAFgreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       05 Apr 071
  Predicted   06 Apr-08 Apr  070/070/070
  90 Day Mean        05 Apr 073
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 04 Apr  008/011
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 05 Apr  015/025
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 06 Apr-08 Apr  012/020-010/012-010/012
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 06 Apr to 08 Apr
A. Middle Latitudes
Active30%25%25%
Minor storm10%05%05%
Major-severe storm01%01%01%
B. High Latitudes
Active50%30%30%
Minor storm25%10%10%
Major-severe storm05%01%01%

All times in UTC

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