Viewing archive of Wednesday, 18 June 2008

Solar activity report

Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2008 Jun 18 2203 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 170 Issued at 2200Z on 18 Jun 2008

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 17-2100Z to 18-2100Z

Solar activity was very low. Region 999 (S03E37) remains stable.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be very low.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 17-2100Z to 18-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was quiet to unsettled due to a coronal hole high speed stream. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit reached high levels today.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be quiet to unsettled for days one and two (19-20 June), returning to quiet levels on day three (21 June) as the high speed stream subsides.
III. Event Probabilities 19 Jun to 21 Jun
Class M01%01%01%
Class X01%01%01%
Proton01%01%01%
PCAFGreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       18 Jun 065
  Predicted   19 Jun-21 Jun  067/067/067
  90 Day Mean        18 Jun 070
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 17 Jun  008/009
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 18 Jun  010/010
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 19 Jun-21 Jun  010/010-008/008-005/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 19 Jun to 21 Jun
A. Middle Latitudes
Active25%25%10%
Minor storm05%05%05%
Major-severe storm01%01%01%
B. High Latitudes
Active25%25%15%
Minor storm05%05%05%
Major-severe storm01%01%01%

All times in UTC

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