Viewing archive of Thursday, 19 June 2008
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2008 Jun 19 2203 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 171 Issued at 2200Z on 19 Jun 2008IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 18-2100Z to 19-2100Z Solar activity was very low. No flares occurred during
the past 24 hours. Region 999 (S03E20) was quiet and stable.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to remain
very low.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 18-2100Z to 19-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was mostly quiet. Solar wind velocity observed
at ACE showed a steady decline during the past 24 hours, with day
end speeds around 450 km/s. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at
geosynchronous orbit was at high levels.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be quiet to unsettled on the first day (20 June), and is
expected to be predominantly quiet for second and third days (20-21
June).
III. Event Probabilities 20 Jun to 22 Jun
| Class M | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | Green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 19 Jun 065 Predicted 20 Jun-22 Jun 065/065/065 90 Day Mean 19 Jun 070
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 18 Jun 008/009 Estimated Afr/Ap 19 Jun 005/005 Predicted Afr/Ap 20 Jun-22 Jun 008/008-005/005-005/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 20 Jun to 22 Jun
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 25% | 10% | 10% |
| Minor storm | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 25% | 10% | 10% |
| Minor storm | 10% | 05% | 05% |
| Major-severe storm | 05% | 01% | 01% |
All times in UTC
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