Viewing archive of Tuesday, 2 September 2008

Solar activity report

Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2008 Sep 02 2201 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 246 Issued at 2200Z on 02 Sep 2008

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 01-2100Z to 02-2100Z

Solar activity was very low. The visible solar disk remains spotless.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to remain very low.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 01-2100Z to 02-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was quiet.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be quiet on Day 1 (3 Sep). Unsettled to active conditions are expected on Days 2-3 (4-5 Sep), with a slight chance of isolated minor storm periods at high latitudes, as a recurrent coronal hole becomes geoeffective.
III. Event Probabilities 03 Sep to 05 Sep
Class M01%01%01%
Class X01%01%01%
Proton01%01%01%
PCAFGreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       02 Sep 066
  Predicted   03 Sep-05 Sep  067/067/067
  90 Day Mean        02 Sep 066
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 01 Sep  002/004
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 02 Sep  005/005
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 03 Sep-05 Sep  005/005-007/008-015/018
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 03 Sep to 05 Sep
A. Middle Latitudes
Active10%15%35%
Minor storm05%10%15%
Major-severe storm01%01%05%
B. High Latitudes
Active10%15%45%
Minor storm05%10%10%
Major-severe storm01%05%10%

All times in UTC

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Active geomagnetic conditions

Observed Kp: 4
Threshold reached: 01:33 UTC

Current data suggests there is a moderate possibility for aurora to appear at the following high latitude regions in the near future

Gillam, MB, Yellowknife, NT

Current data suggests there is a slight possibility for aurora to appear at the following high latitude regions in the near future

Iqaluit, NU, Saskatoon, SK
Nuuk
Reykjavik

S1 - Minor solar radiation storm

Minor impacts on HF radio through polar regions

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