Viewing archive of Monday, 29 September 2008
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2008 Sep 29 2201 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 273 Issued at 2200Z on 29 Sep 2008IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 28-2100Z to 29-2100Z Solar activity was at very low levels.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to remain
at very low levels.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 28-2100Z to 29-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was at quiet levels.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels with a slight chance for
isolated active conditions at high latitudes for day one (30
September) of the forecast period. On day two (01 October) activity
is expected to increase to unsettled to active levels with a chance
for minor storm periods at middle latitudes and major storm
conditions at high latitudes due to a recurrent coronal hole high
speed stream. Activity should decrease to quiet to unsettled levels
with a chance for isolated active conditions at high latitudes for
day three (02 October) as the high speed stream continues.
III. Event Probabilities 30 Sep to 02 Oct
| Class M | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | Green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 29 Sep 067 Predicted 30 Sep-02 Oct 066/066/066 90 Day Mean 29 Sep 066
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 28 Sep 002/003 Estimated Afr/Ap 29 Sep 005/008 Predicted Afr/Ap 30 Sep-02 Oct 008/010-020/025-008/010
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 30 Sep to 02 Oct
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 10% | 30% | 10% |
| Minor storm | 05% | 25% | 05% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 10% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 20% | 40% | 20% |
| Minor storm | 15% | 30% | 15% |
| Major-severe storm | 05% | 15% | 05% |
All times in UTC
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