Viewing archive of Sunday, 28 September 2008
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2008 Sep 28 2201 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 272 Issued at 2200Z on 28 Sep 2008IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 27-2100Z to 28-2100Z Solar activity was at very low levels. The visible
solar disk was spotless.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to remain
at very low levels.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 27-2100Z to 28-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was at quiet levels.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels for days one and two of
the forecast period (29 and 30 September), there is a slight chance
for and isolated active period at high latitudes. On day three (01
October) activity is expected to increase to unsettled to active
conditions with a chance for minor storm periods at middle latitudes
and major storm levels at high latitudes due to a recurrent coronal
hole high speed stream.
III. Event Probabilities 29 Sep to 01 Oct
| Class M | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 28 Sep 067 Predicted 29 Sep-01 Oct 066/066/066 90 Day Mean 28 Sep 066
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 27 Sep 001/002 Estimated Afr/Ap 28 Sep 003/005 Predicted Afr/Ap 29 Sep-01 Oct 008/008-008/010-020/025
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 29 Sep to 01 Oct
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 10% | 10% | 30% |
| Minor storm | 05% | 05% | 25% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 10% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 15% | 20% | 40% |
| Minor storm | 10% | 15% | 30% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 05% | 15% |
All times in UTC
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