Viewing archive of Thursday, 11 September 2008
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2008 Sep 11 2201 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 255 Issued at 2200Z on 11 Sep 2008IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 10-2100Z to 11-2100Z Solar activity was very low. New Region 1001 (N06E14)
was numbered today.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be very
low.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 10-2100Z to 11-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was quiet. The greater than 2 MeV electron
flux at geosynchronous orbit was at high levels today.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be at quiet levels for 12 September. Quiet to unsettled
conditions are forecast for 13 September, with unsettled to active
conditions expected for 14 September. The increase in activity is
forecast due to a recurrent coronal hole high speed stream.
III. Event Probabilities 12 Sep to 14 Sep
| Class M | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | Green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 11 Sep 067 Predicted 12 Sep-14 Sep 066/066/066 90 Day Mean 11 Sep 066
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 10 Sep 002/004 Estimated Afr/Ap 11 Sep 002/005 Predicted Afr/Ap 12 Sep-14 Sep 005/005-007/008-015/020
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 12 Sep to 14 Sep
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 05% | 20% | 35% |
| Minor storm | 01% | 01% | 10% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 05% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 10% | 25% | 40% |
| Minor storm | 01% | 05% | 20% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 10% |
All times in UTC
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