Viewing archive of Friday, 12 September 2008
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2008 Sep 12 2201 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 256 Issued at 2200Z on 12 Sep 2008IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 11-2100Z to 12-2100Z Solar activity was very low. The visible solar disk
was spotless.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be very
low.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 11-2100Z to 12-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was quiet. The greater than 2 MeV electron
flux at geosynchronous orbit was at high levels today.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels for 13 September.
Predominately unsettled conditions with isolated active levels are
expected for 14 September. Unsettled to active conditions with
isolated minor storming are expected for 15 September. The increase
in activity is due to a recurrent coronal hole high speed stream.
III. Event Probabilities 13 Sep to 15 Sep
| Class M | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | Green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 12 Sep 066 Predicted 13 Sep-15 Sep 066/066/066 90 Day Mean 12 Sep 066
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 11 Sep 001/002 Estimated Afr/Ap 12 Sep 002/005 Predicted Afr/Ap 13 Sep-15 Sep 005/008-010/015-015/020
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 13 Sep to 15 Sep
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 10% | 25% | 35% |
| Minor storm | 01% | 05% | 10% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 05% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 25% | 30% | 40% |
| Minor storm | 05% | 10% | 20% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 10% |
All times in UTC
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