Viewing archive of Monday, 28 December 2009
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2009 Dec 28 2201 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 362 Issued at 2200Z on 28 Dec 2009IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 27-2100Z to 28-2100Z Solar activity was very low. Region 1039 (S28E18) has
shown little change from yesterday and remains a beta group. No
flares were observed during the past 24 hours.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be very
low to low. There is a chance for an isolated C-flare from Region
1039.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 27-2100Z to 28-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was quiet. Observations from the ACE
spacecraft show solar wind velocities average around 335 km/s with
minor fluctuations in the IMF southward component, Bz, from +2/-2
nT.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be predominantly quiet for the next three days (29-31
December).
III. Event Probabilities 29 Dec to 31 Dec
| Class M | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | Green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 28 Dec 076 Predicted 29 Dec-31 Dec 078/078/079 90 Day Mean 28 Dec 074
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 27 Dec 001/002 Estimated Afr/Ap 28 Dec 001/005 Predicted Afr/Ap 29 Dec-31 Dec 005/005-005/005-005/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 29 Dec to 31 Dec
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Minor storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Minor storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
All times in UTC
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