Viewing archive of Thursday, 22 April 2010
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2010 Apr 22 2201 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 112 Issued at 2200Z on 22 Apr 2010IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 21-2100Z to 22-2100Z
Solar activity was very low. No flares were observed
during the last 24 hours.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to remain
very low during the forecast period (23-25 April).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 21-2100Z to 22-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was quiet during the last 24 hours.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field will be
predominately quiet with isolated unsettled conditions on day one
(23 April). Quiet levels are expected for days two and three (24-25
April) as the effects of the coronal hole high speed stream
diminish.
III. Event Probabilities 23 Apr to 25 Apr
| Class M | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | Green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 22 Apr 076 Predicted 23 Apr-25 Apr 078/078/080 90 Day Mean 22 Apr 082
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 21 Apr 004/006 Estimated Afr/Ap 22 Apr 004/005 Predicted Afr/Ap 23 Apr-25 Apr 007/008-005/006-005/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 23 Apr to 25 Apr
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 20% | 05% | 05% |
| Minor storm | 05% | 01% | 01% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 00% | 00% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 25% | 10% | 05% |
| Minor storm | 05% | 05% | 01% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 00% |
All times in UTC
Current data suggests there is a slight possibility for aurora to appear at the following high latitude regions in the near future
TórshavnOulu, Rovaniemi, Kuopio, Sodankylä, Utsjoki
Kirkenes, Tromsø, Trondheim
Arkhangelsk, Murmansk
Kiruna, Luleå, Sundsvall, Umeå
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