Viewing archive of Monday, 6 December 2010
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2010 Dec 06 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 340 Issued at 2200Z on 06 Dec 2010IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 05-2100Z to 06-2100Z Solar activity was very low. No flares were observed
in the past 24 hours. Region 1132 decayed to spotless plage.
Regions 1131 (N31E15) and Region 1133 (N16E43) were both quiet,
unipolar, alpha type groups. A large filament erupted from the
southeast quadrant of the visible solar disk beginning at
approximately 1535Z. This eruption was seen in SDO imagery and by
ground based observers. The associated CME was observed in the
STEREO ahead COR2 imagery beginning at approximately 1909Z.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to remain
very low. There is a slight chance for C-class x-ray events for the
next three days.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 05-2100Z to 06-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was quiet. A sector boundary change was
observed at the ACE spacecraft beginning at approximately 1750Z.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is
expected to remain quiet for the first two days of the forecast
period (07-08 Dec). A recurrent coronal hole high speed stream is
expected to become geoeffective near the end of day 3 (9 December)
bringing a chance for unsettled geomagnetic conditions.
III. Event Probabilities 07 Dec to 09 Dec
| Class M | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 06 Dec 089 Predicted 07 Dec-09 Dec 089/089/087 90 Day Mean 06 Dec 082
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 05 Dec 000/001 Estimated Afr/Ap 06 Dec 003/003 Predicted Afr/Ap 07 Dec-09 Dec 005/005-005/005-007/007
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 07 Dec to 09 Dec
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 05% | 05% | 10% |
| Minor storm | 01% | 01% | 05% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 10% | 10% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 01% | 01% | 10% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
All times in UTC
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