Viewing archive of Sunday, 5 December 2010

Solar activity report

Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2010 Dec 05 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 339 Issued at 2200Z on 05 Dec 2010

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 04-2100Z to 05-2100Z

Solar activity has been very low. New Regions 1132 (N12W15), a Dro-Beta type, and Region 1133 (N14E58), an Hrx-Beta type, spot groups were numbered today. Occasional B class x-ray events were observed during the period. Region 1132 produced the periods largest activity with a B5 class x-ray event at 24/2111Z.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be predominately very low with a chance for isolated C class events from Region 1132 for the next three days (06-08 December).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 04-2100Z to 05-2100Z
The geomagnetic field has been quiet during the past 24 hours.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be quiet on days one and two (06-07 December). Day three (08 December) is expected to be quiet to unsettled with a slight chance for isolated active conditions late in the period. The increase in activity is forecast due to a recurrent coronal hole high speed stream becoming geoeffective.
III. Event Probabilities 06 Dec to 08 Dec
Class M01%01%01%
Class X01%01%01%
Proton01%01%01%
PCAFgreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       05 Dec 088
  Predicted   06 Dec-08 Dec  089/089/089
  90 Day Mean        05 Dec 082
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 04 Dec  001/001
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 05 Dec  001/001
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 06 Dec-08 Dec  005/005-005/005-007/007
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 06 Dec to 08 Dec
A. Middle Latitudes
Active05%05%10%
Minor storm01%01%05%
Major-severe storm01%01%01%
B. High Latitudes
Active05%05%15%
Minor storm01%01%10%
Major-severe storm01%01%05%

All times in UTC

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