Viewing archive of Saturday, 1 January 2011

Solar activity report

Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2011 Jan 01 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 001 Issued at 2200Z on 01 Jan 2011

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 31-2100Z to 01-2100Z

Solar activity decreased to very low levels. Occasional low-level B-class flares occurred, most of which were produced by Region 1140 (N32E52). Region 1140 showed no significant changes and remained an H-type group with an alpha magnetic configuration. New Regions 1141 (N35W25) and 1142 (S14E33) were numbered. Both were D-type groups with beta magnetic configurations.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be very low to low during the period (02 - 04 January) with a chance for isolated C-class flares.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 31-2100Z to 01-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was quiet. Note: Todays 10 cm flux value was estimated.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
Geomagnetic field activity is expected to be at quiet levels through the period (02 - 04 January).
III. Event Probabilities 02 Jan to 04 Jan
Class M10%10%10%
Class X01%01%01%
Proton01%01%01%
PCAFGreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       01 Jan 091
  Predicted   02 Jan-04 Jan  092/090/090
  90 Day Mean        01 Jan 083
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 31 Dec  002/004
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 01 Jan  003/005
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 02 Jan-04 Jan  005/005-005/005-005/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 02 Jan to 04 Jan
A. Middle Latitudes
Active05%05%05%
Minor storm01%01%01%
Major-severe storm01%01%01%
B. High Latitudes
Active05%05%05%
Minor storm01%01%01%
Major-severe storm01%01%01%

All times in UTC

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Current data suggests there is a slight possibility for aurora to appear at the following high latitude regions in the near future

Tórshavn
Oulu
Trondheim
Umeå
The solar wind speed is currently moderately high (571.3 km/sec.)

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