Viewing archive of Saturday, 1 January 2011
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2011 Jan 01 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 001 Issued at 2200Z on 01 Jan 2011IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 31-2100Z to 01-2100Z Solar activity decreased to very low levels. Occasional
low-level B-class flares occurred, most of which were produced by
Region 1140 (N32E52). Region 1140 showed no significant changes and
remained an H-type group with an alpha magnetic configuration. New
Regions 1141 (N35W25) and 1142 (S14E33) were numbered. Both were
D-type groups with beta magnetic configurations.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be very
low to low during the period (02 - 04 January) with a chance for
isolated C-class flares.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 31-2100Z to 01-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was quiet. Note: Todays 10 cm flux value was
estimated.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
Geomagnetic field activity is
expected to be at quiet levels through the period (02 - 04 January).
III. Event Probabilities 02 Jan to 04 Jan
| Class M | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | Green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 01 Jan 091 Predicted 02 Jan-04 Jan 092/090/090 90 Day Mean 01 Jan 083
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 31 Dec 002/004 Estimated Afr/Ap 01 Jan 003/005 Predicted Afr/Ap 02 Jan-04 Jan 005/005-005/005-005/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 02 Jan to 04 Jan
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Minor storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Minor storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
All times in UTC
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