Viewing archive of Sunday, 2 January 2011

Solar activity report

Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2011 Jan 02 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 002 Issued at 2200Z on 02 Jan 2011

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 01-2100Z to 02-2100Z

Solar activity remained at very low levels. Region 1140 (N32E40) was the sole source of todays occasional B-class flares. It remained an H-type group with no significant changes noted. Region 1141 (N34W39) decayed to a B-type group. Region 1142 (S12E21) showed a minor increase in area and remained a D-type group with a beta magnetic configuration. No new regions were numbered.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be at very low to low levels during the period (03 - 05 January) with a chance for an isolated C-class flare.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 01-2100Z to 02-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was quiet.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be quiet through the period (03 - 05 January).
III. Event Probabilities 03 Jan to 05 Jan
Class M05%05%05%
Class X01%01%01%
Proton01%01%01%
PCAFGreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       02 Jan 091
  Predicted   03 Jan-05 Jan  090/090/090
  90 Day Mean        02 Jan 083
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 01 Jan  002/003
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 02 Jan  002/005
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 03 Jan-05 Jan  005/005-005/005-005/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 03 Jan to 05 Jan
A. Middle Latitudes
Active05%05%05%
Minor storm01%01%01%
Major-severe storm01%01%01%
B. High Latitudes
Active05%05%10%
Minor storm01%01%01%
Major-severe storm01%01%01%

All times in UTC

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