Viewing archive of Monday, 3 January 2011
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2011 Jan 03 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 003 Issued at 2200Z on 03 Jan 2011IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 02-2100Z to 03-2100Z
Solar activity remained at very low levels. Region 1141
(N35W50) produced isolated low-level B-class flares. No significant
changes were observed in Region 1141. It remained a Bxo group with a
beta magnetic configuration. Region 1142 (S13E07) showed an increase
in intermediate spots and was classified as a Dsi group with a beta
magnetic configuration. No new regions were numbered.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be very
low to low during the period (04 - 06 January) with a chance for an
isolated C-class flare.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 02-2100Z to 03-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was quiet.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
Geomagnetic field activity is
expected to be at quiet levels during days 1 - 2 (04 - 05 January).
Activity is expected to increase to quiet to unsettled levels on day
3 (06 January) as a recurrent coronal hole high-speed stream begins
to disturb the field.
III. Event Probabilities 04 Jan to 06 Jan
| Class M | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | Green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 03 Jan 092 Predicted 04 Jan-06 Jan 092/092/090 90 Day Mean 03 Jan 083
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 02 Jan 003/003 Estimated Afr/Ap 03 Jan 003/005 Predicted Afr/Ap 04 Jan-06 Jan 005/005-005/005-007/007
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 04 Jan to 06 Jan
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 05% | 05% | 10% |
| Minor storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 05% | 10% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
All times in UTC
Current data suggests there is a slight possibility for aurora to appear at the following high latitude regions in the near future
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