Viewing archive of Tuesday, 4 January 2011
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2011 Jan 04 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 004 Issued at 2200Z on 04 Jan 2011IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 03-2100Z to 04-2100Z Solar activity was at low levels during the period. A
C1/Sf was observed from Region 1142 (S12W05) at 03/2335Z while
Region 1141 (N35W64) produced a C1 at 04/0325Z. During the period,
Region 1141 grew in both area and extent while developing penumbra
on both poles. Region 1142 decreased slightly in area and extent,
but increased in spot count. Both these regions retained a bi-polar
magnetic configuration. Region 1140 (N34E14) remained relatively
unchanged.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be at
predominately very low to low levels during the forecast period (05
- 07 January) with a slight chance for an isolated M-class flare.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 03-2100Z to 04-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was at mostly quiet levels.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be at quiet levels during day 1 (05 January) of the
forecast period. Activity is expected to increase to quiet to
unsettled levels on days 2 and 3 (06 - 07 January) as a recurrent
coronal hole high speed stream begins to disturb the field.
III. Event Probabilities 05 Jan to 07 Jan
| Class M | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | Green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 04 Jan 091 Predicted 05 Jan-07 Jan 092/090/090 90 Day Mean 04 Jan 083
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 03 Jan 003/004 Estimated Afr/Ap 04 Jan 004/005 Predicted Afr/Ap 05 Jan-07 Jan 005/005-007/007-007/007
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 05 Jan to 07 Jan
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 05% | 10% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 10% | 15% | 20% |
| Minor storm | 01% | 01% | 05% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
All times in UTC
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