Viewing archive of Wednesday, 5 January 2011
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2011 Jan 05 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 005 Issued at 2200Z on 05 Jan 2011IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 04-2100Z to 05-2100Z
Solar activity was at very low levels during the period
with only a few low-level B-class events observed. Region 1140
(N34E01) developed two spots to the NNE of the large H-type spot and
was reclassified as a Cso Beta. Region 1141 (N34W76) exhibited decay
in area and spot count while Region 1142 (S13W18) showed similar
decay, predominately in the trailer spots.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be at
predominately very low levels, with a chance for C-class activity,
all three days of the forecast period (06 - 08 January).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 04-2100Z to 05-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was quiet at all latitudes. The ACE satellite
observed a sector boundary crossing from a positive (away) to a
negative (toward) magnetic field at approximately 05/1830Z.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels all three days of the
forecast period (06 - 08 January). Isolated active to minor storm
periods are possible beginning on 08 January. The forecasted
increase in activity levels is due to a recurrent coronal hole high
speed stream that is expected to rotate into a geoeffective position
by 06 January.
III. Event Probabilities 06 Jan to 08 Jan
| Class M | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | Green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 05 Jan 088 Predicted 06 Jan-08 Jan 088/088/086 90 Day Mean 05 Jan 083
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 04 Jan 003/004 Estimated Afr/Ap 05 Jan 002/005 Predicted Afr/Ap 06 Jan-08 Jan 007/007-007/007-010/010
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 06 Jan to 08 Jan
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 10% | 15% | 20% |
| Minor storm | 01% | 01% | 10% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 15% | 20% | 25% |
| Minor storm | 01% | 05% | 15% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
All times in UTC
Current data suggests there is a slight possibility for aurora to appear at the following high latitude regions in the near future
Oulu, Rovaniemi, Kuopio, SodankyläTrondheim
Arkhangelsk, Murmansk, Vorkuta
Kiruna, Luleå, Sundsvall, Umeå
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