Viewing archive of Thursday, 6 January 2011

Solar activity report

Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2011 Jan 06 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 006 Issued at 2200Z on 06 Jan 2011

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 05-2100Z to 06-2100Z

Solar activity was at very low levels during the period. Regions 1140 (N33W11) and 1142 (S14W32) were quiet and stable.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to remain at predominately very low levels, with a chance for C-class activity, during the forecast period (07 - 09 January).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 05-2100Z to 06-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was quiet at all latitudes. At approximately 06/1600Z, observations from the ACE satellite indicated a co-rotating interaction region (CIR) had arrived. Increases in density and wind velocity coupled with positive to negative flucuations in the Bz component of the interplanetary magnetic field were indicative of a CIR in advance of a coronal hole high speed wind stream.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be at predominately quiet to unsettled levels all three days of the forecast period (07 - 09 January). Isolated active to minor storm intervals are possible on 08 and 09 January. A recurrent coronal hole high speed stream has rotated into a geoeffective position and is expected to influence Earths magnetic field during the period.
III. Event Probabilities 07 Jan to 09 Jan
Class M01%01%01%
Class X01%01%01%
Proton01%01%01%
PCAFGreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       06 Jan 087
  Predicted   07 Jan-09 Jan  088/086/086
  90 Day Mean        06 Jan 084
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 05 Jan  002/002
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 06 Jan  005/005
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 07 Jan-09 Jan  007/007-010/010-010/010
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 07 Jan to 09 Jan
A. Middle Latitudes
Active15%20%20%
Minor storm01%10%10%
Major-severe storm01%01%01%
B. High Latitudes
Active20%30%30%
Minor storm05%15%15%
Major-severe storm01%01%01%

All times in UTC

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