Viewing archive of Thursday, 6 January 2011
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2011 Jan 06 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 006 Issued at 2200Z on 06 Jan 2011IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 05-2100Z to 06-2100Z
Solar activity was at very low levels during the
period. Regions 1140 (N33W11) and 1142 (S14W32) were quiet and
stable.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to remain
at predominately very low levels, with a chance for C-class
activity, during the forecast period (07 - 09 January).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 05-2100Z to 06-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was quiet at all latitudes. At approximately
06/1600Z, observations from the ACE satellite indicated a
co-rotating interaction region (CIR) had arrived. Increases in
density and wind velocity coupled with positive to negative
flucuations in the Bz component of the interplanetary magnetic field
were indicative of a CIR in advance of a coronal hole high speed
wind stream.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be at predominately quiet to unsettled levels all three
days of the forecast period (07 - 09 January). Isolated active to
minor storm intervals are possible on 08 and 09 January. A recurrent
coronal hole high speed stream has rotated into a geoeffective
position and is expected to influence Earths magnetic field during
the period.
III. Event Probabilities 07 Jan to 09 Jan
| Class M | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | Green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 06 Jan 087 Predicted 07 Jan-09 Jan 088/086/086 90 Day Mean 06 Jan 084
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 05 Jan 002/002 Estimated Afr/Ap 06 Jan 005/005 Predicted Afr/Ap 07 Jan-09 Jan 007/007-010/010-010/010
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 07 Jan to 09 Jan
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 15% | 20% | 20% |
| Minor storm | 01% | 10% | 10% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 20% | 30% | 30% |
| Minor storm | 05% | 15% | 15% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
All times in UTC
Current data suggests there is a slight possibility for aurora to appear at the following high latitude regions in the near future
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