Viewing archive of Sunday, 30 January 2011

Solar activity report

Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2011 Jan 30 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 030 Issued at 2200Z on 30 Jan 2011

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 29-2100Z to 30-2100Z

Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. Region 1150 (S21E37) grew in both area and extent while developing penumbra on both poles. It was classified as a DAO group with a beta magnetic classification. A faint partial-halo CME, visible in STEREO behind C2 imagery at 30/0310Z and LASCO C3 imagery at 30/1954Z, indicate the CME is earthward directed. SDO/AIA 193 imagery associates this event with the 26 degree filament liftoff observed yesterday at 29/1219Z.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be at very low levels with a chance for C-class events for the next three days (31 January - 02 February).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 29-2100Z to 30-2100Z
The geomagnetic field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be at predominantly quiet levels for the next two days (31 January - 01 February). Quiet to unsettled levels with a chance for isolated active periods are expected on day three (02 February) as a recurrent coronal hole high-speed stream moves into a geoeffective position.
III. Event Probabilities 31 Jan to 02 Feb
Class M01%01%01%
Class X01%01%01%
Proton01%01%01%
PCAFgreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       30 Jan 083
  Predicted   31 Jan-02 Feb  083/082/082
  90 Day Mean        30 Jan 084
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 29 Jan  003/004
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 30 Jan  002/005
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 31 Jan-02 Feb  005/005-005/005-008/008
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 31 Jan to 02 Feb
A. Middle Latitudes
Active05%05%10%
Minor storm01%01%05%
Major-severe storm01%01%01%
B. High Latitudes
Active10%10%15%
Minor storm01%01%10%
Major-severe storm01%01%01%

All times in UTC

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