Viewing archive of Friday, 28 January 2011

Solar activity report

Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2011 Jan 28 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 028 Issued at 2200Z on 28 Jan 2011

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 27-2100Z to 28-2100Z

Solar activity has been at moderate levels for the past 24 hours. A R1 Radio blackout was observed in association with a M1 flare at 28/0103Z from Region 1149 (N17, L = 349). A CME observed in LASCO C2 imagery at 28/0206Z and a Type II radio sweep, observed at 28/0101Z with an estimated velocity of 732 km/s, were both associated with this event. Two new regions were numbered today, Region 1150 (S22E62) and Region 1151 (N09W60).
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be at very low levels with a chance for C-class events for the next three days (29-31 January).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 27-2100Z to 28-2100Z
The geomagnetic field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. A proton enhancement was observed by the GOES 13 spacecraft reaching a max of 2.8 pfu at 28/1625Z.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet levels for the next three days (29-31 January).
III. Event Probabilities 29 Jan to 31 Jan
Class M01%01%01%
Class X01%01%01%
Proton01%01%01%
PCAFgreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       28 Jan 081
  Predicted   29 Jan-31 Jan  080/080/080
  90 Day Mean        28 Jan 084
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 27 Jan  002/003
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 28 Jan  004/005
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 29 Jan-31 Jan  005/005-005/005-005/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 29 Jan to 31 Jan
A. Middle Latitudes
Active05%05%05%
Minor storm01%01%01%
Major-severe storm01%01%01%
B. High Latitudes
Active10%10%10%
Minor storm01%01%01%
Major-severe storm01%01%01%

All times in UTC

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