Viewing archive of Saturday, 8 January 2011

Solar activity report

Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2011 Jan 08 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 008 Issued at 2200Z on 08 Jan 2011

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 07-2100Z to 08-2100Z

Solar activity remained at very low levels. Region 1139 (S29W87) produced a B2 flare at 08/0923Z as it approached the west limb. Region 1140 (N33W36) showed no significant changes and remained a C-type group with minor magnetic complexity. Region 1143 (S23E02) decayed to a B-type group with a simple bipolar magnetic configuration. No new regions were numbered.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be very low through the period (09 - 11 January).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 07-2100Z to 08-2100Z
Geomagnetic field activity was at quiet to unsettled levels. ACE solar wind data indicated Earth remained under the influence of a recurrent coronal hole high-speed stream. Solar wind velocities varied from 581 to 672 km/s during the period. Interplanetary magnetic field (IMF) intensity remained enhanced (peak 6 nT), while IMF Bz was variable at -4 to +6 nT. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit reached high levels during the period.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
Geomagnetic field activity is expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels during days 1 - 2 (09 - 10 January). Field activity is expected to decrease to quiet levels on day 3 (11 January) as the coronal hole high-speed stream subsides.
III. Event Probabilities 09 Jan to 11 Jan
Class M01%01%01%
Class X01%01%01%
Proton01%01%01%
PCAFGreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       08 Jan 085
  Predicted   09 Jan-11 Jan  084/084/082
  90 Day Mean        08 Jan 084
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 07 Jan  010/011
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 08 Jan  007/008
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 09 Jan-11 Jan  007/008-007/008-005/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 09 Jan to 11 Jan
A. Middle Latitudes
Active20%15%10%
Minor storm10%05%01%
Major-severe storm01%01%01%
B. High Latitudes
Active30%25%15%
Minor storm15%10%05%
Major-severe storm01%01%01%

All times in UTC

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