Viewing archive of Saturday, 8 January 2011
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2011 Jan 08 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 008 Issued at 2200Z on 08 Jan 2011IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 07-2100Z to 08-2100Z
Solar activity remained at very low levels. Region 1139
(S29W87) produced a B2 flare at 08/0923Z as it approached the west
limb. Region 1140 (N33W36) showed no significant changes and
remained a C-type group with minor magnetic complexity. Region 1143
(S23E02) decayed to a B-type group with a simple bipolar magnetic
configuration. No new regions were numbered.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be very
low through the period (09 - 11 January).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 07-2100Z to 08-2100Z
Geomagnetic field activity was at quiet to unsettled levels. ACE
solar wind data indicated Earth remained under the influence of a
recurrent coronal hole high-speed stream. Solar wind velocities
varied from 581 to 672 km/s during the period. Interplanetary
magnetic field (IMF) intensity remained enhanced (peak 6 nT), while
IMF Bz was variable at -4 to +6 nT. The greater than 2 MeV electron
flux at geosynchronous orbit reached high levels during the period.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
Geomagnetic field activity is
expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels during days 1 - 2 (09 -
10 January). Field activity is expected to decrease to quiet levels
on day 3 (11 January) as the coronal hole high-speed stream
subsides.
III. Event Probabilities 09 Jan to 11 Jan
| Class M | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | Green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 08 Jan 085 Predicted 09 Jan-11 Jan 084/084/082 90 Day Mean 08 Jan 084
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 07 Jan 010/011 Estimated Afr/Ap 08 Jan 007/008 Predicted Afr/Ap 09 Jan-11 Jan 007/008-007/008-005/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 09 Jan to 11 Jan
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 20% | 15% | 10% |
| Minor storm | 10% | 05% | 01% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 30% | 25% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 15% | 10% | 05% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
All times in UTC
Current data suggests there is a slight possibility for aurora to appear at the following high latitude regions in the near future
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