Viewing archive of Friday, 4 February 2011

Solar activity report

Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2011 Feb 04 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 035 Issued at 2200Z on 04 Feb 2011

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 03-2100Z to 04-2100Z

Solar activity was very low. Region 1152 (S18W01) produced a few B-class x-ray flares during the period. Newly numbered Region 1153 (N1518) remained stable and quiet.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be predominately very low with a chance for a C-class x-ray event for the next 3 days (5-7 February).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 03-2100Z to 04-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was predominately quiet with an isolated unsettled period between 04/03Z-04/06Z and an active period between 04/18Z and 04/21Z. A sudden impulse of 8 nT was observed at 04/0236Z in association with a reverse shock behind the slow moving CME from 30 January. Solar wind speeds reached near 500 km/s and Bz was sustained between -15 and -20 nT between 04/18Z and 04/21Z.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is forecast to be unsettled to active with a chance for an isolated minor storm early, then mostly quiet to unsettled for the second half of day 1 (5 February). Conditions are forecast to be predominately quiet on days 2 and 3 (6-7 February) as coronal hole effects wane.
III. Event Probabilities 05 Feb to 07 Feb
Class M01%01%01%
Class X01%01%01%
Proton01%01%01%
PCAFGreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       04 Feb 082
  Predicted   05 Feb-07 Feb  082/082/082
  90 Day Mean        04 Feb 084
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 03 Feb  000/001
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 04 Feb  010/010
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 05 Feb-07 Feb  008/008-005/005-005/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 05 Feb to 07 Feb
A. Middle Latitudes
Active40%20%10%
Minor storm25%05%01%
Major-severe storm05%01%01%
B. High Latitudes
Active50%20%10%
Minor storm20%10%01%
Major-severe storm10%01%01%

All times in UTC

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