Viewing archive of Wednesday, 15 June 2011

Solar activity report

Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2011 Jun 15 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 166 Issued at 2200Z on 15 Jun 2011

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 14-2100Z to 15-2100Z

Solar activity reached moderate levels during the period. An impulsive M1/Sf flare was observed from Region 1236 (N17E58) at 14/2147Z. The region continued to rotate on to the disk, and now appears as an E-type group with Beta-Delta magnetic characteristics. Region 1234 (S15W22) produced a C3/1f at 15/1432Z. The region doubled in area and spot count, but remained a simple bi-polar group.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be low with a chance for M-class events all three days of the period (16 - 18 June).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 14-2100Z to 15-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was quiet. Solar wind velocities steadily decreased through the period from about 550 km/s to near 450 km/s. The Bz component of the interplanetary magnetic field began the period weakly south to about -3 nT. At 15/0900Z, Bz turned weakly north to about +3 nT, and remained so through the balance of the period.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be at mostly quiet levels through day one (16 June) and the majority of day two (17 June). Late on day two, and through day three (18 June), quiet to isolated active conditions are possible due to glancing blow effects from the CME observed early on 14 June.
III. Event Probabilities 16 Jun to 18 Jun
Class M25%25%25%
Class X01%01%01%
Proton01%01%01%
PCAFgreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       15 Jun 102
  Predicted   16 Jun-18 Jun  105/105/105
  90 Day Mean        15 Jun 103
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 14 Jun  007/007
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 15 Jun  007/007
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 16 Jun-18 Jun  005/005-006/007-008/008
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 16 Jun to 18 Jun
A. Middle Latitudes
Active05%10%15%
Minor storm01%01%05%
Major-severe storm01%01%01%
B. High Latitudes
Active10%15%20%
Minor storm01%05%10%
Major-severe storm01%01%01%

All times in UTC

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