Viewing archive of Thursday, 19 May 2011
Solar activity report
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 139 Issued at 2200Z on 19 May 2011IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 18-2100Z to 19-2100Z
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 18-2100Z to 19-2100Z
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
III. Event Probabilities 20 May to 22 May
| Class M | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 19 May 084 Predicted 20 May-22 May 084/082/080 90 Day Mean 19 May 109
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 18 May 004/006 Estimated Afr/Ap 19 May 004/005 Predicted Afr/Ap 20 May-22 May 007/007-007/007-005/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 20 May to 22 May
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 15% | 15% | 05% |
| Minor storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 25% | 25% | 05% |
| Minor storm | 05% | 05% | 01% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
All times in UTC
Current data suggests there is a moderate possibility for aurora to appear at the following high latitude regions in the near future
Rovaniemi, Sodankylä, UtsjokiKirkenes
Murmansk, Norilsk, Vorkuta
Kiruna
Current data suggests there is a slight possibility for aurora to appear at the following high latitude regions in the near future
Oulu, KuopioArkhangelsk
Luleå, Sundsvall, Umeå
Current data suggests there is a slight possibility for aurora to appear at the following middle latitude regions in the near future
Petrozavodsk, SyktyvkarLatest news
Coronal hole faces Earth
Strong G3 geomagnetic storm watch for 23 March
Coronal hole faces Earth
Latest forum messages
Support SpaceWeatherLive.com!
A lot of people come to SpaceWeatherLive to follow the Sun's activity or if there is aurora to be seen, but with more traffic comes higher server costs. Consider a donation if you enjoy SpaceWeatherLive so we can keep the website online!
Latest alerts
13:00 UTC - Type II Radio Emission
Begin Time: 25/03/2025 12:36 UTC Estimated Velocity: 516km/sec.
Monday, 24 March 2025
Coronal hole faces Earth
The anticipated strong G3 geomagnetic storm watch never materialized as the coronal mass ejection that was supposed to arrive early yesterday didn't arrive until today just past midnight UTC. The impact was very lackluster with the Bt (total strength of the IMF) increasing to a moderate 15nT at best and the solar wind speed reaching just 420km/s. A far cry from the anticipated 700 to 800km/s. That once again goes to show how hard it is to forecast space weather events and any resulting geomagnetic conditions. We remain under the influence of the CME and high latitude sky watchers should remain alert for some nice aurora displays but middle latitude sky watchers will probably have to wait for the next opportunity.
13:55 UTC - Coronal hole
A transequatorial coronal hole is facing Earth. Enhanced solar wind could arrive in ~3 days
02:45 UTC - Geomagnetic activity
Active geomagnetic conditions (Kp4) Threshold Reached: 02:33 UTC
Space weather facts
| Last X-flare | 2025/02/23 | X2.0 |
| Last M-flare | 2025/03/21 | M1.2 |
| Last geomagnetic storm | 2025/03/22 | Kp6- (G2) |
| Spotless days | |
|---|---|
| Last spotless day | 2022/06/08 |
| Monthly mean Sunspot Number | |
|---|---|
| February 2025 | 154.6 +17.6 |
| March 2025 | 138.3 -16.4 |
| Last 30 days | 136.1 -18.1 |