Viewing archive of Friday, 22 April 2011

Solar activity report

Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2011 Apr 22 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 112 Issued at 2200Z on 22 Apr 2011

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 21-2100Z to 22-2100Z

Solar activity was moderate. Region 1195 (S18E28) produced two M-class flares: an M1/Sn at 0457Z and an M1/1n at 1553Z. There was not any indication of a CME associated with either of these events. Region 1195 dominated the activity during the past 24 hours and produced numerous additional C-class x-ray events. The group showed steady growth throughout the period and is currently estimated to have 370 millionths sunspot area. The group also shows some magnetic complexity (Beta-Gamma); particularly interesting is an east-west section of the inversion line in the center of the group which has a favorable configuration for building shear. Region 1193 (N17W45) is gradually decaying and did not produce any flares.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be moderate for the next three days. Additional M-class flares are likely from Region 1195, especially if it continues to grow.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 21-2100Z to 22-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was generally quiet during the past 24 hours.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be quiet for the next three days (23-25 April).
III. Event Probabilities 23 Apr to 25 Apr
Class M60%60%60%
Class X05%05%05%
Proton01%01%01%
PCAFgreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       22 Apr 115
  Predicted   23 Apr-25 Apr  115/115/110
  90 Day Mean        22 Apr 105
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 21 Apr  004/005
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 22 Apr  004/006
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 23 Apr-25 Apr  005/005-005/005-005/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 23 Apr to 25 Apr
A. Middle Latitudes
Active05%05%05%
Minor storm01%01%01%
Major-severe storm01%01%01%
B. High Latitudes
Active05%05%05%
Minor storm01%01%01%
Major-severe storm01%01%01%

All times in UTC

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