Viewing archive of Saturday, 23 April 2011

Solar activity report

Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2011 Apr 23 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 113 Issued at 2200Z on 23 Apr 2011

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 22-2100Z to 23-2100Z

Solar activity was low. Region 1195 (S16E14) produced several impulsive C-class flares during the period. This spot group maintained a Beta-Gamma magnetic configuration, though also showing signs of decay with a decrease in area. Region 1193 (N17W57) was stable and quiet during the period.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is forecast to be low with a chance for a M-class x-ray event in the next 3 days (24-26 April).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 22-2100Z to 23-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was mostly quiet with the exception of an isolated period of active conditions between 23/09Z and 23/12Z.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be mostly quiet for the next 3 days (24-26 April).
III. Event Probabilities 24 Apr to 26 Apr
Class M30%30%30%
Class X05%05%05%
Proton01%01%01%
PCAFgreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       23 Apr 119
  Predicted   24 Apr-26 Apr  118/115/115
  90 Day Mean        23 Apr 105
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 22 Apr  003/006
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 23 Apr  005/005
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 24 Apr-26 Apr  005/005-005/005-005/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 24 Apr to 26 Apr
A. Middle Latitudes
Active05%05%05%
Minor storm01%01%01%
Major-severe storm01%01%01%
B. High Latitudes
Active10%10%10%
Minor storm01%01%01%
Major-severe storm01%01%01%

All times in UTC

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