Viewing archive of Friday, 20 May 2011

Solar activity report

Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2011 May 20 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 140 Issued at 2200Z on 20 May 2011

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 19-2100Z to 20-2100Z

Solar activity was very low. The three spotted regions on the disk, 1214 (S24W70), 1216 (S16E19) and 1218 (S16E40) were all unipolar and magnetically simple.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to remain very low to low. A slight chance for a C-class x-ray flare remains for the next three days (21 May - 23 May).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 19-2100Z to 20-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was quiet. A weak sudden impulse (3nT) at the Boulder magnetometer was observed at 20/0415Z.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to remain predominantly quiet for the next three days (21 May - 23 May).
III. Event Probabilities 21 May to 23 May
Class M01%01%01%
Class X01%01%01%
Proton01%01%01%
PCAFgreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       20 May 084
  Predicted   21 May-23 May  083/080/080
  90 Day Mean        20 May 108
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 19 May  002/004
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 20 May  005/005
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 21 May-23 May  005/005-005/005-005/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 21 May to 23 May
A. Middle Latitudes
Active10%10%05%
Minor storm01%01%01%
Major-severe storm01%01%01%
B. High Latitudes
Active15%15%10%
Minor storm05%05%05%
Major-severe storm01%01%01%

All times in UTC

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