Viewing archive of Friday, 17 June 2011
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2011 Jun 17 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 168 Issued at 2200Z on 17 Jun 2011IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 16-2100Z to 17-2100Z Solar activity decreased to very low levels. Region
1234 (S16W48) and Region 1236 (N17E33) each produced isolated
B-class x-ray flares. A B7 x-ray flare occurred near the SE limb at
17/0646Z. Region 1234 showed a gradual increase in interior spots
during the period and was classified as a Dsi group with a simple
bipolar magnetic structure. Region 1236 showed a gradual decrease in
magnetic complexity in its trailer portion and was classified as a
Dho with a beta-gamma magnetic structure. No new regions were
numbered. No Earth-directed coronal mass ejections (CME) were
observed during the period.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be low
through the period (18 - 20 June) with a chance for an isolated
M-class flare.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 16-2100Z to 17-2100Z
Geomagnetic activity was at quiet to active levels. An active period
was observed during 07/0000 - 0300Z. A geomagnetic sudden impulse
(SI) was observed at Boulder at 17/0244Z (31 nT) and indicated the
arrival of the partial-halo CME observed on 14 June.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
Geomagnetic activity is
expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels on day 1 (18 June).
Activity is expected to decrease to quiet levels on day 2 (19 June).
An increase to quiet to unsettled levels is expected on day 3 (20
June) as a coronal hole high-speed stream begins to disturb the
field.
III. Event Probabilities 18 Jun to 20 Jun
| Class M | 20% | 20% | 20% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 17 Jun 104 Predicted 18 Jun-20 Jun 105/105/105 90 Day Mean 17 Jun 104
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 16 Jun 003/004 Estimated Afr/Ap 17 Jun 013/013 Predicted Afr/Ap 18 Jun-20 Jun 007/008-005/005-008/008
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 18 Jun to 20 Jun
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 15% | 10% | 20% |
| Minor storm | 01% | 01% | 05% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 20% | 15% | 25% |
| Minor storm | 01% | 01% | 10% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
All times in UTC
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