Viewing archive of Saturday, 18 June 2011

Solar activity report

Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2011 Jun 18 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 169 Issued at 2200Z on 18 Jun 2011

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 17-2100Z to 18-2100Z

Solar activity increased to low levels. Region 1234 (S16W61) produced occasional B- and C-class flares during the period, the largest of which was a C3/Sn at 17/2342Z. Region 1234 showed an increase in interior spots and maintained a simple beta magnetic configuration. Region 1236 (N17E18) showed a gradual loss of trailer spots during the period, but maintained a beta-gamma magnetic configuration. New Region 1237 (S15E53) was numbered early in the period and was classified as a simple Axx-type. No Earth-directed coronal mass ejections were observed during the period.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be low through the period (19 - 21 June). There will also be a chance for an isolated M-class flare during days 1 - 2 (19 - 20 June).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 17-2100Z to 18-2100Z
Geomagnetic activity was at quiet levels through the period.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
Geomagnetic activity is expected to remain at quiet levels on day 1 (19 June). Activity is expected to increase to quiet to unsettled levels during days 2 - 3 (20 - 21 June), with a chance for brief active periods, due to a coronal hole high-speed stream.
III. Event Probabilities 19 Jun to 21 Jun
Class M20%20%10%
Class X01%01%01%
Proton01%01%01%
PCAFgreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       18 Jun 099
  Predicted   19 Jun-21 Jun  100/100/095
  90 Day Mean        18 Jun 104
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 17 Jun  008/011
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 18 Jun  005/007
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 19 Jun-21 Jun  005/005-007/008-007/008
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 19 Jun to 21 Jun
A. Middle Latitudes
Active10%20%20%
Minor storm01%05%05%
Major-severe storm01%01%01%
B. High Latitudes
Active15%25%25%
Minor storm01%10%10%
Major-severe storm01%01%01%

All times in UTC

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