Viewing archive of Sunday, 19 June 2011

Solar activity report

Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2011 Jun 19 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 170 Issued at 2200Z on 19 Jun 2011

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 18-2100Z to 19-2100Z

Solar activity was low. Regions 1234 (S16W74) and 1237 (S15E39) each produced a C-class flare during the period. Region 1234 showed no significant change as it approached the west limb. Region 1236 (N15E06) produced an isolated B-class flare. It showed no significant changes and remained an E-type group with a beta-gamma magnetic configuration. A C1/Sf flare from Region 1237 at 19/1637Z was associated with a partial-halo coronal mass ejection (CME). The CME had an estimated plane-of-sky speed of 519 km/s and appeared to have an Earthward component. New Region 1238 (S17E11), a two-spot Axx group, was numbered.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be very low to low during the period (20 - 22 June).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 18-2100Z to 19-2100Z
Geomagnetic field activity was at quiet levels.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
Geomagnetic field activity is expected to increase to quiet to unsettled levels during days 1 - 2 (20 - 21 June) with a chance for brief active periods due to a coronal hole high-speed stream. Activity is expected to decrease to quiet levels on day 3 (22 June). The CME mentioned above is not expected to disturb the field during the forecast period.
III. Event Probabilities 20 Jun to 22 Jun
Class M15%10%10%
Class X01%01%01%
Proton01%01%01%
PCAFgreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       19 Jun 099
  Predicted   20 Jun-22 Jun  100/095/095
  90 Day Mean        19 Jun 104
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 18 Jun  004/004
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 19 Jun  003/005
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 20 Jun-22 Jun  007/008-007/008-005/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 20 Jun to 22 Jun
A. Middle Latitudes
Active20%20%10%
Minor storm05%05%01%
Major-severe storm01%01%01%
B. High Latitudes
Active25%25%15%
Minor storm10%10%01%
Major-severe storm01%01%01%

All times in UTC

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