Viewing archive of Monday, 20 June 2011

Solar activity report

Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2011 Jun 20 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 171 Issued at 2200Z on 20 Jun 2011

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 19-2100Z to 20-2100Z

Solar activity was very low. Region 1234 (S16W87) produced two B-class flares as it approached the west limb. Region 1236 (N17W07) showed little change during the period and remained an Esi group with a beta-gamma magnetic configuration (due to mixed polarities in the leader portion of the group). New Regions 1239 (N18E13) and 1240 (S17E42) were numbered. Both were small, magnetically simple spot groups.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be very low to low through the period (21 - 23 June).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 19-2100Z to 20-2100Z
Geomagnetic field activity was at quiet to unsettled levels.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
Geomagnetic field activity is expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels on day 1 (21 June) due to weak coronal hole high-speed stream (CH HSS) effects. Activity is expected to decrease to quiet levels on day 2 (22 June). An increase to quiet to unsettled levels is expected for day 3 (23 June) with a chance for active levels as another CH HSS begins to disturb the field.
III. Event Probabilities 21 Jun to 23 Jun
Class M10%10%10%
Class X01%01%01%
Proton01%01%01%
PCAFgreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       20 Jun 096
  Predicted   21 Jun-23 Jun  095/095/100
  90 Day Mean        20 Jun 104
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 19 Jun  003/004
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 20 Jun  007/008
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 21 Jun-23 Jun  007/008-005/005-010/015
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 21 Jun to 23 Jun
A. Middle Latitudes
Active20%10%25%
Minor storm05%01%15%
Major-severe storm01%01%05%
B. High Latitudes
Active25%15%30%
Minor storm10%01%20%
Major-severe storm01%01%10%

All times in UTC

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