Viewing archive of Sunday, 3 July 2011

Solar activity report

Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2011 Jul 03 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 184 Issued at 2200Z on 03 Jul 2011

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 02-2100Z to 03-2100Z

Solar activity was low. Region 1244 (N16W38) produced a C2/Sf flare at 03/1101Z. Earlier in the period, Region 1244 produced a B9/Sf at 03/0024Z with an associated Type II radio sweep and a Type IV radio sweep. A partial-halo CME was observed lifting off the southwest with an estimated plane of sky speed of 525 km/s. The CME was observed on LASCO C3 at 03/0142Z and on STEREO Ahead EUVI 195 at 03/0209Z. Region 1244 also produced a long duration B2 flare at 03/0807Z.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be very low with a chance for an isolated C-class flare for the next three days (04-06 July).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 02-2100Z to 03-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was at quiet to unsettled levels, with an isolated active period at high latitudes between 03/0300-0600Z. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit reached high levels during the period.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels on day one (04 July). Quiet levels are expected on days two and three (05-06 July).
III. Event Probabilities 04 Jul to 06 Jul
Class M01%01%01%
Class X01%01%01%
Proton01%01%01%
PCAFGreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       03 Jul 086
  Predicted   04 Jul-06 Jul  086/086/086
  90 Day Mean        03 Jul 100
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 02 Jul  003/006
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 03 Jul  006/010
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 04 Jul-06 Jul  007/007-005/005-005/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 04 Jul to 06 Jul
A. Middle Latitudes
Active20%10%10%
Minor storm01%01%01%
Major-severe storm01%01%01%
B. High Latitudes
Active25%15%15%
Minor storm01%01%01%
Major-severe storm01%01%01%

All times in UTC

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