Viewing archive of Sunday, 3 July 2011
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2011 Jul 03 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 184 Issued at 2200Z on 03 Jul 2011IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 02-2100Z to 03-2100Z Solar activity was low. Region 1244 (N16W38) produced a
C2/Sf flare at 03/1101Z. Earlier in the period, Region 1244 produced
a B9/Sf at 03/0024Z with an associated Type II radio sweep and a
Type IV radio sweep. A partial-halo CME was observed lifting off the
southwest with an estimated plane of sky speed of 525 km/s. The CME
was observed on LASCO C3 at 03/0142Z and on STEREO Ahead EUVI 195 at
03/0209Z. Region 1244 also produced a long duration B2 flare at
03/0807Z.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be very
low with a chance for an isolated C-class flare for the next three
days (04-06 July).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 02-2100Z to 03-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was at quiet to unsettled levels, with an
isolated active period at high latitudes between 03/0300-0600Z. The
greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit reached
high levels during the period.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels on day one (04 July).
Quiet levels are expected on days two and three (05-06 July).
III. Event Probabilities 04 Jul to 06 Jul
| Class M | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | Green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 03 Jul 086 Predicted 04 Jul-06 Jul 086/086/086 90 Day Mean 03 Jul 100
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 02 Jul 003/006 Estimated Afr/Ap 03 Jul 006/010 Predicted Afr/Ap 04 Jul-06 Jul 007/007-005/005-005/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 04 Jul to 06 Jul
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 20% | 10% | 10% |
| Minor storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 25% | 15% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
All times in UTC
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