Viewing archive of Saturday, 2 July 2011

Solar activity report

Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2011 Jul 02 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 183 Issued at 2200Z on 02 Jul 2011

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 01-2100Z to 02-2100Z

Solar activity has been very low. There have been two B-class flares observed in the past 24 hours. Region 1243 (N16E08) produced a B2 event at 01/2111Z, and Region 1242 (N18W57) produced a B1 event at 1121Z. Region 1243 showed growth in the leader spot, but the trailer spots decayed.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be very low with a slight chance for an isolated C-class flare.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 01-2100Z to 02-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was quiet. ACE solar wind data indicated speeds between 360 - 430 km/s, consistent with a weak high speed stream from a favorably positioned coronal hole.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be quiet to unsettled with a chance for an isolated active period on days 1 and 2 (3 - 4 July). Day 3 (5 July) is expected to be quiet.
III. Event Probabilities 03 Jul to 05 Jul
Class M01%01%01%
Class X01%01%01%
Proton01%01%01%
PCAFGreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       02 Jul 086
  Predicted   03 Jul-05 Jul  086/086/086
  90 Day Mean        02 Jul 101
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 01 Jul  007/013
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 02 Jul  005/007
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 03 Jul-05 Jul  007/010-007/010-005/007
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 03 Jul to 05 Jul
A. Middle Latitudes
Active25%25%10%
Minor storm01%01%01%
Major-severe storm01%01%01%
B. High Latitudes
Active30%30%10%
Minor storm10%10%05%
Major-severe storm05%05%01%

All times in UTC

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