Viewing archive of Friday, 29 July 2011

Solar activity report

Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2011 Jul 29 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 210 Issued at 2200Z on 29 Jul 2011

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 28-2100Z to 29-2100Z

Solar activity was low. Region 1261 (N16E33) produced the majority of the C-class flare events. The largest was a C6/1f at 1640Z. Region 1261 appears to be in decay and is classified as Dai spot group with a beta-gamma magnetic configuration. Region 1260 (N19E03) appears to show separation between the leader and trailing spots and is classified as a Eai spot group with a beta-gamma magnetic configuration. Region 1263 (N18E59) has been largely quiet and stable as it rotated into view, only managing a low level C-flare.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to continue at low levels with a chance for M-class flares.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 28-2100Z to 29-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was mostly quiet. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit reached high levels during the period.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be mostly quiet on 30 July. Unsettled conditions with possible active periods are expected on 31 July-01 August due to effects from a coronal hole high speed stream.
III. Event Probabilities 30 Jul to 01 Aug
Class M40%40%40%
Class X05%05%05%
Proton05%05%05%
PCAFgreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       29 Jul 112
  Predicted   30 Jul-01 Aug  110/110/110
  90 Day Mean        29 Jul 095
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 28 Jul  003/003
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 29 Jul  004/005
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 30 Jul-01 Aug  005/005-012/012-012/012
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 30 Jul to 01 Aug
A. Middle Latitudes
Active05%35%35%
Minor storm01%15%15%
Major-severe storm01%05%05%
B. High Latitudes
Active05%40%40%
Minor storm01%20%20%
Major-severe storm01%10%10%

All times in UTC

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