Viewing archive of Thursday, 28 July 2011
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2011 Jul 28 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 209 Issued at 2200Z on 28 Jul 2011IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 27-2100Z to 28-2100Z Solar activity was low. Region 1260 (N19E17) produced
multiple C-flares during the period, the largest a C5 at 1212Z.
Region 1260 increased in magnetic complexity and is classified as a
Eac spot group with a Beta-Gamma-Delta magnetic classification.
Region 1261 (N15E49) has exhibited slight rotational motion and is
classified a Dko with a Beta magnetic classification. Region 1262
(N16W49) has decayed to a simple Axx group. New Regions 1263
(N18E73) and 1264 (S31E50) were numbered today.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to continue
at predominantly low levels with a chance for M-class flares from
Region 1260.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 27-2100Z to 28-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was quiet. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux
at geosynchronous orbit reached high levels during the period.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be mostly quiet for the first two days (29-30 July). On
day three (31 July) activity is expected to increase to unsettled
levels with the chance for active periods due to effects from a
coronal hole high speed stream.
III. Event Probabilities 29 Jul to 31 Jul
| Class M | 40% | 40% | 40% |
| Class X | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Proton | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 28 Jul 107 Predicted 29 Jul-31 Jul 110/110/110 90 Day Mean 28 Jul 095
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 27 Jul 002/004 Estimated Afr/Ap 28 Jul 004/005 Predicted Afr/Ap 29 Jul-31 Jul 005/005-005/005-012/012
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 29 Jul to 31 Jul
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 05% | 05% | 35% |
| Minor storm | 01% | 01% | 15% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 05% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 05% | 05% | 40% |
| Minor storm | 01% | 01% | 20% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 10% |
All times in UTC
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