Viewing archive of Friday, 3 February 2012
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2012 Feb 03 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 034 Issued at 2200Z on 03 Feb 2012IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 02-2100Z to 03-2100Z
Solar activity was at very low levels. The disk and
limb was quiet and stable with no Earth-directed CMEs observed
during the period.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be very
low to low for the next three days (04 - 06 February).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 02-2100Z to 03-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was at quiet to unsettled levels with isolated
high latitude active periods due to the waning effects of a
geoeffective coronal hole high speed stream. During the period, ACE
satellite observations indicated wind speeds averaged about 425 km/s
while the Bz component of the interplanetary magnetic field varied
between +/- 5 nT.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be at mostly quiet levels for the next three days (04 -
06 February).
III. Event Probabilities 04 Feb to 06 Feb
| Class M | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | Green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 03 Feb 111 Predicted 04 Feb-06 Feb 110/110/105 90 Day Mean 03 Feb 141
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 02 Feb 003/007 Estimated Afr/Ap 03 Feb 006/008 Predicted Afr/Ap 04 Feb-06 Feb 004/005-005/005-004/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 04 Feb to 06 Feb
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 10% | 05% | 05% |
| Minor storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 15% | 10% | 10% |
| Minor storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
All times in UTC
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