Viewing archive of Monday, 21 May 2012
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2012 May 21 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 142 Issued at 2200Z on 21 May 2012IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 20-2100Z to 21-2100Z Solar activity was very low. No Earth-directed CMEs
were observed during the period.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be at
very low to low levels with a slight chance for an M-class flare for
the forecast period (22 - 24 May).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 20-2100Z to 21-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was at quiet to active levels. A weak
interplanetary shock was observed at the ACE spacecraft at 21/1844Z.
An associated sudden impulse of 34 nT was observed at the Boulder
magnetometer at 21/1937Z. The geomagnetic field responded with an
active period between 21/1800 - 2100Z. This activity was likely
attributable to the arrival of the 18 May CME.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels with a chance for active
periods on days 1-2 (22 - 23 May) as recurrent coronal hole high
speed streams (CH HSS) move into a geoeffective position. Quiet to
unsettled conditions are expected on day 3 (24 May) as effects of
the CH HSS wane.
III. Event Probabilities 22 May to 24 May
| Class M | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 21 May 125 Predicted 22 May-24 May 125/125/120 90 Day Mean 21 May 116
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 20 May 012/011 Estimated Afr/Ap 21 May 005/007 Predicted Afr/Ap 22 May-24 May 010/010-007/010-007/008
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 22 May to 24 May
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 20% | 20% | 10% |
| Minor storm | 10% | 10% | 01% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 25% | 25% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 15% | 15% | 05% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
All times in UTC
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