Viewing archive of Sunday, 17 June 2012
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2012 Jun 17 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 169 Issued at 2200Z on 17 Jun 2012IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 16-2100Z to 17-2100Z
Solar activity was low. Region 1504 (S17W39) produced a
few C-class flares during the last part of the period. The largest
flare was a C3/Sf at 17/1740Z. Region 1504 fluctuated in area,
ending the period at about 820 millionths.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to remain
low with a chance of isolated M-class activity from Region 1504.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 16-2100Z to 17-2100Z
Geomagnetic activity ranged from active to major storm levels due to
CME effects. A magnetopause crossing was observed by the GOES 15
satellite from around 16/2200Z to 16/2300Z. The greater than 10 MeV
proton event that began at 16/1955Z reached a maximum flux of 14 pfu
at 16/2020Z and ended at 16/2255Z.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
Geomagnetic activity is
expected to decrease to unsettled levels with a chance for active
periods on day 1 (18 June) and continue to decrease to quiet to
unsettled levels on day 2 (19 June) as CME effects subside. On day 3
(20 June), a chance for unsettled activity is expected due to a
recurrent coronal hole high speed stream.
III. Event Probabilities 18 Jun to 20 Jun
| Class M | 40% | 40% | 40% |
| Class X | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Proton | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| PCAF | Green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 17 Jun 124 Predicted 18 Jun-20 Jun 125/125/125 90 Day Mean 17 Jun 119
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 16 Jun 019/017 Estimated Afr/Ap 17 Jun 026/038 Predicted Afr/Ap 18 Jun-20 Jun 014/022-008/012-007/008
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 18 Jun to 20 Jun
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 25% | 20% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 10% | 05% | 05% |
| Major-severe storm | 05% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 25% | 25% | 20% |
| Major-severe storm | 40% | 30% | 20% |
All times in UTC
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