Viewing archive of Saturday, 28 July 2012

Solar activity report

Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2012 Jul 28 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 210 Issued at 2200Z on 28 Jul 2012

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 27-2100Z to 28-2100Z

Solar activity was high. Region 1532 (S22E49) produced a M6/2n x-ray flare at 28/2056Z along with an associated Tenflare (370 sfu), a Type II radio sweep with an estimated speed of 1387 km/s, and a Type IV radio sweep. Further analysis will be conducted as more data becomes available. Newly numbered Region 1534 (N17E55) was observed developing in the northeastern quadrant of the visible disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be low with the chance for moderate levels for the next 3 days (29-31 July).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 27-2100Z to 28-2100Z
The geomagnetic field began the period at quiet levels before increasing to unsettled levels after 28/1200Z due to extended periods of southward Bz and possible weak coronal hole (CH) effects. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit reached high levels during the period.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be unsettled to active on days 1 and 2 (29-30 July) due to CH effects, and recover to mostly quiet on day 3 (31 July) as conditions wane.
III. Event Probabilities 29 Jul to 31 Jul
Class M25%25%25%
Class X01%01%01%
Proton01%01%01%
PCAFGreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       28 Jul 127
  Predicted   29 Jul-31 Jul  130/135/140
  90 Day Mean        28 Jul 126
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 27 Jul  005/004
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 28 Jul  008/012
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 29 Jul-31 Jul  024/015-024/010-004/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 29 Jul to 31 Jul
A. Middle Latitudes
Active30%30%01%
Minor storm15%15%01%
Major-severe storm05%05%01%
B. High Latitudes
Active10%10%15%
Minor storm20%20%05%
Major-severe storm45%45%01%

All times in UTC

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