Viewing archive of Saturday, 28 July 2012
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2012 Jul 28 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 210 Issued at 2200Z on 28 Jul 2012IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 27-2100Z to 28-2100Z
Solar activity was high. Region 1532 (S22E49) produced
a M6/2n x-ray flare at 28/2056Z along with an associated Tenflare
(370 sfu), a Type II radio sweep with an estimated speed of 1387
km/s, and a Type IV radio sweep. Further analysis will be conducted
as more data becomes available. Newly numbered Region 1534 (N17E55)
was observed developing in the northeastern quadrant of the visible
disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be low
with the chance for moderate levels for the next 3 days (29-31
July).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 27-2100Z to 28-2100Z
The geomagnetic field began the period at quiet levels before
increasing to unsettled levels after 28/1200Z due to extended
periods of southward Bz and possible weak coronal hole (CH) effects.
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit reached
high levels during the period.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be unsettled to active on days 1 and 2 (29-30 July) due
to CH effects, and recover to mostly quiet on day 3 (31 July) as
conditions wane.
III. Event Probabilities 29 Jul to 31 Jul
| Class M | 25% | 25% | 25% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | Green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 28 Jul 127 Predicted 29 Jul-31 Jul 130/135/140 90 Day Mean 28 Jul 126
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 27 Jul 005/004 Estimated Afr/Ap 28 Jul 008/012 Predicted Afr/Ap 29 Jul-31 Jul 024/015-024/010-004/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 29 Jul to 31 Jul
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 30% | 30% | 01% |
| Minor storm | 15% | 15% | 01% |
| Major-severe storm | 05% | 05% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 10% | 10% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 20% | 20% | 05% |
| Major-severe storm | 45% | 45% | 01% |
All times in UTC
Current data suggests there is a slight possibility for aurora to appear at the following high latitude regions in the near future
Edmonton, AB, Whitehorse, YTAnchorage, AK, Juneau, AK
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