Viewing archive of Friday, 24 August 2012

Solar activity report

Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2012 Aug 24 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 237 Issued at 2200Z on 24 Aug 2012

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 23-2100Z to 24-2100Z

Solar activity was very low. No CMEs observed in the past 24 hours are expected to be geoeffective. New Region 1554 (N16E12) was numbered overnight and has developed into a Dai type spot group with a beta magnetic configuration.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be very low with a chance for C-class activity.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 23-2100Z to 24-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was at quiet to unsettled levels with active to minor storm levels at high latitudes. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit reached high levels during the period.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
Geomagnetic activity is expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels with isolated active periods. A chance exists for minor to major storm levels at high latitudes. Increased activity is due to a recurrent coronal hole high speed stream.
III. Event Probabilities 25 Aug to 27 Aug
Class M10%10%10%
Class X01%01%01%
Proton01%01%01%
PCAFGreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       24 Aug 104
  Predicted   25 Aug-27 Aug  105/110/110
  90 Day Mean        24 Aug 124
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 23 Aug  011/010
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 24 Aug  008/009
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 25 Aug-27 Aug  007/008-011/012-006/008
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 25 Aug to 27 Aug
A. Middle Latitudes
Active20%25%20%
Minor storm05%05%05%
Major-severe storm01%01%01%
B. High Latitudes
Active20%15%20%
Minor storm30%30%30%
Major-severe storm25%35%25%

All times in UTC

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