Viewing archive of Sunday, 29 July 2012

Solar activity report

Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2012 Jul 29 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 211 Issued at 2200Z on 29 Jul 2012

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 28-2100Z to 29-2100Z

Solar activity was moderate. Region 1532 (S21E33) produced a M2/1n x-ray event at 29/0622Z. No CME is expected in association with this event. There were two CMEs observed during the period. The first, associated with the M6/2n flare on 28 July, was visible in SOHO LASCO and the STEREO coronagraphs with a relatively slow speed (382 km/s estimated) and sourced from the southeast quadrant of the disk. ENLIL model runs suggest a possible weak glancing blow to earth, but beyond the forecast period. The second CME was associated with a erupted filament from the southeast quadrant just after 29/0000Z. Due to a lack of SOHO LASCO imagery, this event is only visible in STEREO A/B COR2, but appears to have a trajectory farther south and east than the first transient, and is not expected to be geoeffective.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be low with the chance for isolated moderate conditions over the next 3 days (30 July - 01 August).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 28-2100Z to 29-2100Z
The geomagnetic field began the period at unsettled to active levels due to possible weak coronal hole (CH) effects and intermittent periods of southward Bz. From 06Z-21Z, the field has been quiet.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be unsettled to active on day 1 (30 July) as weak CH effects persist. Quiet to unsettled conditions are expected on day 2 (31 July) as conditions wane. Mostly quiet conditions are expected on day 3 (1 August).
III. Event Probabilities 30 Jul to 01 Aug
Class M25%25%25%
Class X01%01%01%
Proton01%01%01%
PCAFGreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       29 Jul 131
  Predicted   30 Jul-01 Aug  132/135/138
  90 Day Mean        29 Jul 126
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 28 Jul  011/011
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 29 Jul  007/008
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 30 Jul-01 Aug  011/012-008/008-004/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 30 Jul to 01 Aug
A. Middle Latitudes
Active25%15%05%
Minor storm05%05%01%
Major-severe storm01%01%01%
B. High Latitudes
Active10%10%15%
Minor storm20%15%10%
Major-severe storm30%20%05%

All times in UTC

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